- The analyst consensus was 444K
- The whisper number was 481K
The Federal US EV credit expired on September 30 so this will be the last set of data that benefits from it. The real demand test will be in Q4 but the market is valuing the company more on robotics and robotaxis more than autos at this point.
The production number was a tad light compared to estimates I've seen and that could highlight at Q4 decline.
Q3 numbers are due on November 22. Through three quarters this year, sales are down 5.86%. In 2024, Q4 deliveries were 495,570 and that's going to be a huge hurdle given the expiration of the $7500 tax credit.
Shares are up 3.0% following the announcement but I suspect we will see a 'sell the fact' trade as shares are pushing right up against the 2024 high at $479 in the premarket. I have been touting the bull case in TSLA since mid-month but it's running into resistance now.
Tesla reports:
In the third quarter, we produced over 447,000 vehicles, delivered over 497,000 vehicles and deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products – a record for both deliveries and deployments.
Thank you to all our customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders and supporters who helped us achieve these results.
| Production | Deliveries | Subject to operating lease accounting | |
| Model 3/Y | 435,826 | 481,166 | 2% |
| Other Models | 11,624 | 15,933 | 7% |
| Total | 447,450 | 497,099 | 2% |
