Tesla deliveries for the first quarter were 358,023 compared to the consensus of 372,000. Model 3/Y deliveries disappointed at 342K vs 354K expected. Meanwhile, production of 3/Y was at 394K compared 377K expected.
Shares were down 2% ahead of the announcement on the broad weakness in stock markets and that's extended to -3.5% in the aftermath.
The comp for Tesla in Q1 was an easy one as Q1 2025 was arguably Tesla's weakest quarter in years — production lines across all four factories were shutting down for the Model Y Juniper changeover, resulting in just 336,681 deliveries. So any YoY comp is flattering by default. The Wall Street consensus of ~372K, implies only about 29,000 more vehicles than a quarter Tesla largely written off as a transition period.
There's a notable divergence between the Street and prediction markets. On Polymarket, the 350K–375K bucket held an 83.5% implied probability, but earlier in the week the lean was toward a miss on the Street number.
The bigger picture is that Tesla has now posted two consecutive years of declining deliveries, falling from a peak of 1.81 million in 2023 to 1.79 million in 2024 and 1.64 million in 2025. Full-year 2026 consensus sits at 1.69 million — a 3.3% recovery that would still leave the company well below its 2023 high-water mark.
US sales have been hurt by the loss of the federal EV tax credit at the end of Q3 2025. In Asia, Tesla faces intense pricing pressure from domestic EV makers undercutting on price and features. European sales have been hammered by the Musk backlash and rising competition from VW and BYD, though there was a rebound in February.
Despite the sales slump, TSLA stock is still up about 35% over the past year, even with a 20% slide to start 2026 — the market is pricing in robotaxi, Optimus, and FSD optionality rather than near-term unit volumes. If deliveries come in above 375K, it's a modest beat that could stabilize sentiment. Below 360K and the prediction market bears are vindicated. Either way, this is a company where the delivery number matters less than it used to — the narrative has shifted to software and autonomy.
