Tesla is expected to release its third-quarter sales this week, with Wall Street increasingly upbeat on the numbers even as doubts linger over how sustainable any bump in demand may prove.
Musk does not set a firm date for its quarterly updates, but global production and delivery figures are usually published within days of quarter-end. This time, the data is likely to arrive Wednesday or Thursday.
Analysts’ expectations have crept higher in recent weeks:
- Consensus now stands at about 448,000 vehicles sold, up from around 430,000 earlier in the quarter, though still short of the 463,000 delivered a year ago.
- Some forecasts edge higher, suggesting deliveries could approach 456,000, with U.S. sales likely boosted by buyers rushing to lock in tax credits before they expired at the end of September.
Still, concerns remain that Tesla risks being caught between fading incentives and the rollout of cheaper EV models later this year. Chief Executive Elon Musk warned in July of “rough” quarters ahead, underscoring uncertainty in demand.
Tesla’s shares have mirrored the volatility. A seven-session winning streak gave way to sharp losses last week after European trade data showed a steep sales drop, before the stock regained 4% on Friday.
In Europe, sales remain under pressure. August deliveries fell 37% year-on-year to 8,220 vehicles, and are down 43% so far in 2025, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.
The upcoming delivery numbers will offer a fresh gauge of Tesla’s global momentum at a time when policy shifts and new product cycles could reshape its demand profile.
