We are headed towards a surveillance state, simple as that.
The combination of cameras and microphones everywhere, combined with AI to parse it all, makes the power of mass surveillance too alluring for the government to ignore.
And Palantir is right there to help out. Already, there are reports that ICE is using Palantir technology to do its work:
Palantir is working on a tool for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) that populates a map with potential deportation targets, brings up a dossier on each person, and provides a “confidence score” on the person’s current address.
Separately, Wired also reports that a Palantir system is being used to sort and summarize ICE tips from the public.
Of course, this is only what we hear about as they're also undoubtedly involved in other unsightly programs along with terrorist tracking. Here's the co-founder of the company.
So business is good and that's what today's earnings report will show. Revenue in Q4 is expected at 1.349 billion, up about 60% y/y and earnings per share are forecast at 23-cents in the quarter.
What's less intriguing is the valuation. At a market cap of $349 billion, it's one of the biggest companies in the world but the annual run rate of this quarter's revenue puts it at about 65x revenue. Even looking further out, the consensus on revenue rises to $8.6 billion in 2027, which still puts the company at an impossibly-high valuation.
Of course -- like I said -- the bull case is a surveillance state and in that kind of world, the revenue could 10x (and very high margins) and then the company might not be so expensive at all.
For now, the company remains more of a meme stock and that head-and-shoulders pattern on the chart is ominous. With the company growing so large and the strange antics of its CEO Alex Karp, there is some popular opposition to the company brewing, that could lead to it being politically targeted.
If anything, this report will highlight how willing the market is to support 'story stocks' whose valuations far exceed anything remotely 'normal'.
