Palantir Stock Trade Idea - Short setup using options flow and price context
Bias: Bearish tilt for a tactical fade of strength
This article is for education at investingLive.com. It is not investment advice. Do your own research and make your own trading and investing decisions.
Why a bearish lean today
Options flow
Net option delta volume: -43,174 shares equivalent. Slight on-balance preference for downside or hedging.
Bearish pressure vs bullish: -2,234,165 vs +2,190,991 shares equivalent. Tilt is modest but negative.
IV context: 30-day IV 69.9 and rising with IV30 rank 76%. Elevated and rising IV often aligns with demand for protection and pullback risk.
Where bears transact: Bearish weighted average price 180.66 sits close to bullish 180.88 and near VWAP 180.69. With spot near 180.5 pre market, sellers have been leaning into strength around 180 to 181.
Price location and performance
Day range: 176.02 - 184.35. Our average entry sits near the top of the intraday band.
52-week range: 40.90 - 190.00. Average entry is ~3.87% below the 52-week high and ~95% up the 52-week band.
Momentum cooling at the margin: 1W -1.74% vs strong 1M +5.91%, 3M +18.51%, YTD +135.72%, 1Y +313.16%. After a major run, short-term softness near prior highs supports a tactical fade.
Trade plan for PLTR Stock Short
Instrument: PLTR shares or your chosen derived product
Premarket context: Quote ~$180.50 (about +0.5% vs yesterday close $179.62). Premarket orders must be limit orders.
Entries (equal size)
1st Sell $181.67
2nd Sell $182.64
3rd Sell $183.62
Average entry: $182.64
Stop: $186.59
Risk per share: $3.95 (2.16% of avg entry)
Take profits
TP1: $178.46 → +$4.18/share → +2.29% → 1.06× R
TP2: $176.43 → +$6.21/share → +3.40% → 1.57× R
TP3: $173.29 → +$9.35/share → +5.12% → 2.37× R
TP4: $171.17 → +$11.47/share → +6.28% → 2.91× R
TP5: $165.17 → +$17.47/share → +9.57% → 4.43× R
Blended reward (simple average of the 5 targets): ~2.47× R and +5.33%.
Management rules for Palantir Traders
Default rule at investingLive: when TP1 hits, move stop to entry and cancel any unfilled entry orders.
Take about 20% off at TP1 and leave most of the size for deeper targets.
All entries are equal size and all take profits are equal size unless you choose otherwise.
Thesis in one line
Options flow leans modestly bearish with elevated and rising IV while price is perched near the top of its daily and 52-week ranges, so fading strength into 181.7 to 183.6 with a tight, defined risk at 186.59 offers an attractive tactical R profile.
Education and risk notice: Markets are risky. None of the above is a promise of results. This is educational information only. Always size positions prudently, use your own judgment, and trade at your own risk.
