Nvidia sees $500bn chip pipeline through 2026, but China sales hit by geopolitics

  • Nvidia’s forward visibility reinforces the strength of the global AI-capex cycle, while confirmation of China softness may shift investor focus toward demand concentration in the U.S. and non-China sovereign AI markets.
Nvidia to the moon

Nvidia executives struck an extraordinarily bullish tone on the company’s long-term AI outlook during the earnings call, revealing unprecedented forward visibility on next-generation chip demand while acknowledging that geopolitical frictions continue to constrain business in China.

CFO Colette Kress told analysts that Nvidia currently has line-of-sight to $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue from early 2024 through the end of 2026, a figure that underscores both the scale of the AI build-out and Nvidia’s tightening grip on high-end accelerator markets. She added that Nvidia expects to be “the superior choice” for what the company estimates will be $3–4 trillion in annual AI-infrastructure spending globally by the end of the decade.

At the same time, management flagged ongoing challenges in China. Nvidia reiterated that geopolitical restrictions continue to hamper market access, and said that several expected “sizable purchases” in China did not materialise, reflecting both U.S. export controls and uneven domestic demand.

Still, Nvidia emphasised that demand elsewhere remains far more than sufficient to absorb any weakness in China, with hyperscalers, sovereign AI buyers and global enterprises collectively driving multi-year visibility unmatched in the company’s history.

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ps ... CFO says the useful life of GPUs is being extended with A100s from 6 years ago running at 100% utilization.

This is in answer to Burry's depreciation accusations.

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Earlier:

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