The broader NASDAQ and S&P indices both came under pressure last Friday, with the NASDAQ breaking and closing below its 200-day moving average, while the S&P managed to hold just above its own 200-day MA. That divergence set the stage for a potential shift in bias.
On Monday, markets gapped higher as weekend developments helped calm investor concerns. The move pushed the NASDAQ back above its 200-day moving average (now near 22,224). Although the index is modestly lower today (around -0.56%), it continues to hold above that key level, currently trading near 22,353.
As the market heads into the FOMC decision, the 200-day moving average remains the key pivot. A move back below—and especially a close below—that level would tilt the bias back to the downside. On the flip side, a push higher would have traders targeting the 100-hour moving average at 22,547 and the 200-hour moving average at 22,694. A break above those levels would strengthen the bullish case.
For the S&P, the story is similar but slightly more constructive. Monday’s gap higher helped the index extend further above its 200-day moving average (currently near 6,616), keeping buyers in control for now. However, a move back below—and a close beneath—that level would shift the bias lower, with the next downside target near 6,521.92.
On the topside, resistance comes in at the falling 100-hour moving average near 6,773.57 and the falling 200-hour moving average near 6,831.10. A move above those levels would be needed to reinforce a more bullish technical outlook.
In summary, both indices remain above their 200-day moving averages, keeping the broader bias tilted to the upside—for now. However, with the FOMC decision ahead and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, those key levels remain vulnerable. Traders should stay alert and be prepared for a potential shift in direction.
