Intel’s Turnaround Gains Momentum After Solid Q3. Bloomberg Analyst Says Execution Will Be Key Key and I Ask If There's More Meat After the Earnings Move?
Intel’s long awaited turnaround story is finally beginning to take shape. Despite what appeared to be a slight miss in its fourth quarter guidance, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor Analyst Pindu Sivani explained that this was largely a misunderstanding. The market’s consensus estimates incorrectly included Altera revenues, which Intel no longer reports following its Altera business exit.
When adjusted for that, Intel’s Q4 guidance was actually solid, coming on the heels of a strong Q3 earnings beat. Sivani said the company’s ongoing execution on process technology and cost efficiency supports a credible recovery narrative.
Foundry and Node Progress Strengthen the Long Term Case
Intel’s 18A node progress, combined with capacity expansion in Arizona, is creating what Sivani called a structural cost advantage that will improve margins over time. She highlighted improvements in gross margin trajectory and OPEX discipline, adding that these metrics suggest Intel is regaining operational control.
Government partnerships, NVIDIA collaboration, and SoftBank’s investment provide long term tailwinds, even though they do not yet contribute meaningfully to near term earnings. Sivani noted that these developments are strategically important to Intel’s foundry ambitions and positioning within the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem.
AI Manufacturing Still a Wait and Watch Story
Asked whether Intel can compete in the booming AI chip manufacturing race, Sivani called it a “wait and watch game.” The company will not be able to prove its competitiveness immediately, she said. Instead, investors and customers will be watching how 18A yields and cost structure improve over coming quarters.
According to Sivani, consistent delivery on these milestones will be critical to establishing customer confidence, especially as Intel seeks to become a third party foundry supplier at advanced nodes like 14A.
investingLive View. Execution Is Everything
While sentiment around Intel has improved, much of the stock’s recent rally stems from optimism over policy support and partnerships rather than immediate earnings power. As Sivani emphasized, execution over the next year will determine whether Intel’s comeback truly sticks.
Patience, discipline, and continued delivery will be key. But there's another important point I would like to make as the positive earnings is only part of the story.
My Note: What the Options Market Is Telling Us About Intel Stock
Looking at the options market, the expected move ahead of earnings was approximately 9.1%. Intel Corp. (INTC) closed after hours at $41.63, which is about 8.4% above its regular session close, almost perfectly aligned with what the options market priced in. The after hours high was $41.61, so in practice, Intel reached that target zone exactly, considering normal bid ask spreads.
That fulfillment suggests that patient profit takers and programmed trading algorithms were ready to lock in gains once the expected move was achieved. This naturally raises the question. Is there still much “meat” left on the bone for retail investors and traders looking to jump in now?
If you are already holding Intel and wondering whether to trim some exposure, this could be a logical point to dilute a portion of your position, for example, around 20%, in line with how professional traders often manage risk around fully priced in moves.
Conversely, if you are a short seller, this may be an area worth monitoring. After all, with Intel shares up roughly 103 percent since the start of 2025, and the stock now hitting its options implied ceiling, this could represent a tactically attractive zone to consider short exposure, especially if the price consolidates or forms a descending channel (potential bull flag) pattern in the coming sessions.
The earnings results were indeed good, but were they that good to justify much more upside immediately? Ultimately, broader market direction, particularly the Nasdaq’s next move toward or away from new all time highs, will play a major role in determining whether Intel continues higher or starts cooling off. Additional upcoming tech earnings may provide the next big clue. As always, do your own research as we at investingLive.com are not giving financial advice and always invest and trade at your own risk only.
