Fast Cash Burn Rate Watchlist - what today’s runways imply for traders and investors
How to read this
Burn rate - average monthly cash outflow.
Runway - months until cash runs out at the current burn rate.
What it means - short runway increases dilution or financing risk. Long runway reduces near term funding risk but does not remove execution risk.
Extras - we add the on screen technical flag and options data to find where flows or volatility may confirm the story.
Quick tiers by runway (e.g., is MSTR a big short?)
Red zone - under 6 months
AUR 4.7 months - cash 222.0 M, burn -48 M. Options IV rank 0.0 percent suggests very low implied vol relative to its recent range. If price weakens, financing headlines can reprice quickly.
Yellow zone - 6 to 12 months
MSTR 6.5 months - technical Bearish Crossover, huge options activity ~554k contracts, IV rank 18.3 percent. Short runway plus bearish signal raises caution.
WAL 9.0 months - burn -308 M against 2.8 B cash. Options activity light, IV rank 1.2 percent.
JOBY 9.1 months - Top Pullback flag, IV rank 0.8 percent. Watch for funding path updates.
IONQ 11.9 months - Top Pullback, IV rank 50.2 percent. Higher IV rank says options market is pricing more movement.
Orange zone - 12 to 24 months
SMMT 17.6 months - biotech with moderate burn, watch data and partnership catalysts.
INSM 18.2 months - Uptrend flag. Funding window looks manageable in this horizon.
Long runway - 24 months plus
RKLB 61.6 months - Uptrend, active options board ~100k average daily. Execution story can dominate near term.
OKLO 52.3 months - Uptrend, IV rank 12.4 percent. Long cash life reduces financing overhang.
ASTS 84.2 months - Top Pullback, IV rank 0.8 percent. Plenty of time, watch technicals for better entries.
Numbers and labels are taken directly from the Fast Cash Burn Rate screen you provided.
What to do with this list
For traders
Trade the confirmation, not the story - combine runway with today’s technical flag. Example: short runway plus Bearish Crossover or Top Pullback can validate a fade on weak bounces. Use tight risk and partials.
Monitor IV rank - very low IV rank can make long optionality cheaper, very high IV rank favors spreads or premium selling at your own discretion.
Watch the close - names in the red or yellow zones are prone to late day pressure when liquidity thins.
For investors
Funding path check - review credit lines, ATM programs, insider loans, and covenant headroom for yellow and red tier names.
Dilution math - estimate shares needed to fund 12 months of burn. If the raise would be more than a few percent of market cap, demand a bigger margin of safety on entry.
Execution vs time - long runway names can be held to milestones. Short runway names require a clear near term catalyst that reduces burn or unlocks revenue.
Today’s highlights
Caution bucket: AUR, MSTR, JOBY, WAL. Short to moderate runways with either bearish or pullback signals. Use alerts around prior support and be disciplined with stops.
Constructive bucket: RKLB, OKLO, ASTS. Long runways. Look for accumulation footprints and higher lows before committing size.
Swing candidates with catalysts: INSM, SMMT, IONQ. Middle runways. Positive trend or strong options interest can amplify moves around news.
Risk checklist before any trade
Is the trend aligned with your idea.
Is the runway adequate for your holding period.
Are you buying or selling into a likely raise window.
Do you have partials and a stop to entry plan.
Decision support only. This is not investment advice. We are in no way saying you should go Long or Short, that is up to you only. You must do your own research. Trade and invest at your own risk. Visit investingLive.com for additional views.
