TL;DR summary:
China shipment data point to a sharp rebound in non-Chinese branded phones, boosting Apple’s implied market share.
Premium demand appears resilient despite weak overall growth in China’s handset market.
Regulatory risks persist, but brokers see iPhone momentum cushioning near-term pressure.
A renewed surge in iPhone demand across China is reinforcing the bullish case for Apple Inc., with fresh data pointing to a sharp recovery in the company’s market share despite a broadly sluggish domestic handset market.
Wells Fargo reiterated its Overweight rating on Apple and maintained a $300 price target, arguing that recent shipment trends signal improving momentum for the iPhone franchise in mainland China. Apple shares were recently trading around $273 (see attached chart screenshot), valuing the company at roughly $4.0 trillion.
According to figures from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, shipments of non-Chinese branded smartphones, widely viewed as a proxy for iPhone demand, surged 128% year on year to 6.93 million units in November. Over the same period, Apple’s implied market share jumped to 22.4% from 10.6% a year earlier, even though overall smartphone shipments in China rose by just 2%.
In contrast, shipments of Chinese-branded handsets declined 13%, highlighting a clear divergence between premium and mass-market demand. The data suggest Apple is continuing to capture share at the high end, even as price-sensitive consumers pull back amid slower economic growth.
Wells Fargo said the figures point to strengthening iPhone momentum heading into 2026, helping offset concerns around regulatory pressure and longer-term competitive risks in the region.
Other brokers echoed a cautiously constructive stance. Jefferies lifted its price target to $283.36 while retaining a Hold rating, citing improved hardware trends balanced against legal and policy headwinds. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Overweight view and raised its target to $315, arguing that sustained iPhone strength provides Apple with financial resilience as it navigates regulatory and operational challenges into 2026.
