India’s equity benchmarks are poised to open higher on Friday as investors await the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision, with markets split on whether strong GDP growth and a weakening rupee argue against a widely expected rate cut.
Nifty futures were trading higher than Thursday’s close.
The RBI decision, due at 0400 GMT/ 2300 US Eastern time, was initially expected to deliver a 25bp cut, according to a Reuters poll. But firmer economic data and the rupee’s recent slide to fresh lows have reduced expectations of near-term easing. Analysts warn that the sharp depreciation, driven by weak inflows, a wider trade deficit and stalled U.S.–India trade talks, may push the central bank toward caution.
Still, some strategists argue that a cut could spark a short-term rally, especially with demand already supported by recent tax reductions. The Nifty and Sensex have slipped modestly this week as investors hold back ahead of the policy announcement, though both indices remain up around 10% year-to-date and are forecast to gain 10–15% through 2026 despite recent profit-taking after touching 14-month highs.
As noted earlier, the collapse of the rupee has weighed heavily on offshore holders on India equites.
