Goldman Sachs has laid out a clear reaction playbook for equity markets ahead of Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, suggesting the S&P 500 is poised for moderate swings based on where the headline jobs figure lands.
According to the bank’s estimates, a print around their baseline forecast of +100k jobs would be the market’s “neutral zone,” expected to generate a modest +0.40% rise in the S&P 500.
Here's the breakdown of projected SPX moves:
<50k jobs: SPX -0.75%
50k–74k: SPX -0.50%
75k–99k: SPX +0.25%
100k–124k (GSe = +100k): SPX +0.40%
125k–150k: SPX +0.25%
>150k: SPX ±0.25% (limited directional impact)
The implied SPX move through Friday’s close is ~0.79%, indicating options markets are pricing in a moderate reaction.
Goldman’s framework suggests markets may reward a “Goldilocks” jobs number that avoids signalling either recession risk (too low) or renewed inflationary pressure (too high). A stronger-than-expected print north of 150k is seen as ambiguous for equities, likely due to the potential for revived Fed hawkishness.
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Separately, Goldman Sachs Credit strategists warn that global corporate credit spreads are at lowest since 2007, advise hedging
