Ex-Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein warned the U.S. is “due” for another crisis, pointing to hidden risks in credit markets such as narrow spreads and leveraged private credit. Still, he remains bullish, citing Fed rate cuts and the transformative potential of AI, and says he’s fully invested in equities—aligning with Goldman’s call for a new secular bull market.
“Crisis cycle” view – Former Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein told CNBC the U.S. tends to see a major economic crisis every 4–5 years, and the next one may be approaching.
Credit markets flagged – He sees risks in credit, especially hidden leverage and narrow spreads that suggest investors are underpricing risk.
Red flags –
Credit spreads (e.g. ICE BofA HY OAS near 2.84%) at historic lows.
Surge in private credit (AUM +14.5% y/y), with insurers and others adding leverage.
Concern some assets may not be worth what’s claimed.
Crisis drivers – Likely to come from leverage in less visible parts of the system, not from traditional trade flows.
Still bullish – Despite caution, Blankfein remains positive on equities:
Fed likely to cut rates, supporting growth.
AI and tech seen as transformative, long-term drivers.
He is “100% in on equities.”
Goldman alignment – His outlook mirrors Goldman’s view that the U.S. is entering a new secular bull market with opportunities in tech, services, manufacturing, and global diversification.
