The oil market has impressively shrugged off two negative headlines in the past two trading days.
On Friday:
A report said the UAE was mulling leaving OPEC in order to pump more oil. It was quickly denied but with the UAE investing heavily in production, there's reason to believe it's not all fluff.
That initially sent oil $2 lower but it quickly rebounded and finished $1 higher on the day.
Today:
China forecast growth of 'around 5%' this year.
The bulls were hoping for something around 6% and talk of stimulus but instead the forecasts and commentary were more conservative. WTI fell as low as $78.32 but as rebounded to $80.15 per barrel. This is the first rise above $80 since February 13.
On the fundamental side, tomorrow's API private oil data will be a driver, along with whatever Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says. Oil has benefited from positive risk appetite in the past two trading days and that will remain a main driver going forward, though I'd anticipate that if global growth continues to impress, then there's more upside for crude coming than risk assets.
Technically though, we're still in the $70-85 range and until that breaks, it's a range trade. In the short-term, the February high of $80.62 is nearby.
