Nick Timiraos from WSJ
Two headwinds that will make things look worse going forward.
A year ago tame PCE MoM data will fall off from the YoY calculation, putting upside pressure on the YoY levels.
- May 2024, 0.0%
- June 2024, 0.1%
- July 2024, 0.2%
- August 2024, 0.1%
- September 2024, 0.2%
- October 2024, 0.2%
3- month average: 0.1%
6-month average: 0.13%
For the core MoM over the next 6-months
- May 2024, 0.1%
- June 2024, 0.2%
- July 2024, 0.2%
- August 2024, 0.1%
- September 2024, 0.3%
- October 2024, 0.3%
3-month average of core PCE: 1.67%
6-month average of core PCE: 0.2%
MoM gains of 0.2% or more for headline and core data will mathematically move the YoY up for the headline and the core measures.
