Here is the link to the Nomura piece:
The Wall Street Journal have a piece up along similar lines (link here for the full article, may be gated):
"Propping up" the yuan.
- China’s exceptionally strong trade surplus ... A huge, pandemic-related shift in Western demand to goods over services has massively favoured China ... China’s own heavy hand against Covid-19 at home has kept domestic consumption suppressed, putting a lid on imports.
- As a result, the yuan is up around 2.6% against the U.S. dollar so far this year.
But
- if one expects pandemic conditions to keep improving in the U.S. and Europe, it is easy to see many of these trends reversing. Demand for services could bounce back ... Demand for goods could finally take a breather
- That all could mean less upward pressure on the Chinese currency.
- the prospect of capital outflows could again rear its head ..China’s property bust and growth slump ... Beijing has started to send clear signals that policy has shifted to loosening mode.... Lower rates in China will make its markets less attractive to global and domestic capital .... Capital outflows and a lower yuan are the likely results.
USD/CNH sure has plunged since May last year:
