The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Anotherimportant input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.
In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.
Non-Farm Payrolls
- 0K-144K range of estimates
- 60K-100K range most clustered
- 75K consensus
Unemployment Rate
- 4.4% (1%)
- 4.3% (59%) - consensus
- 4.2% (39%)
- 4.1% (1%)
Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y
- 3.9% (7%)
- 3.8% (31%)
- 3.7% (59%) - consensus
- 3.4% (3%)
Average Hourly Earnings M/M
- 0.4% (5%)
- 0.3% (91%) - consensus
- 0.2% (4%)
Average Weekly Hours
- 34.4 (3%)
- 34.3 (83%) - consensus
- 34.2 (14%)
Overall, expectations are dovish for this report and the positioning is diametrically opposite to the one we had in August.
