In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the French consumer confidence and the Spanish PPI. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted.
In the American session, we have a slate of US data although there's only one that will likely matter for the market. In fact, the most important release should be the weekly US ADP jobs data which will include the first week of November. The prior two releases were still for October, so this release could be more important for the market. Tomorrow, we will also get the most recent US Jobless Claims.
We have also the US Consumer Confidence today but the market hasn't been moving on this release for a long time as the focus has been (and still remains) on the labour market.
Lastly, we have the September US Retail Sales and PPI reports today. It goes without saying that this is old data by now and it won't change anything for the Fed, so it shouldn't really matter. The market is now pricing a 70% chance of a December cut and it certainly won't change based on September data. Therefore, I expect the market to largely ignore these two releases.
Central bank speakers:
- 08:00 GMT/03:00 ET - ECB's Villeroy (dovish - voter)
- 09:00 GMT/04:00 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)
- 09:15 GMT/04:15 ET - ECB's Makhlouf (neutral - voter)
- 14:00 GMT/09:00 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)
