In the European session, we get the UK Retail Sales data and the Flash PMIs for major European economies and the UK. None of these data is going to change anything for their respective central banks, but it could still be market-moving.
The BoE is expected to cut in December with a 83% probability following a soft employment report and in line inflation figures. The ECB has ended its easing cycle in summer and it's now just monitoring the economic developments.
In the American session, we get the Canadian Retail Sales data, the Flash US PMIs and the final UMich consumer sentiment. The most market-moving release should be the Flash US PMIs. In fact, the BoC is now on the sidelines and a poor or strong retail sales report is not going to change that. The final UMich data is rarely market-moving as the market likes fresh information i.e. the preliminary figures.
The US Flash PMIs could be market-moving, although I don't see how they could change things materially at this point unless they are very strong or very weak. The market is pricing roughly a 30% chance of a December cut, which makes it unlikely but keeps some hopes alive in case other data shows weakness or Fed members signal a cut before the blackout period starting next Saturday.
As things stand, I think we either get a dovish hold or a hawkish cut in December, and I would lean on the former.
Central bank speakers:
- 08:00 GMT/03:00 ET - ECB's Kocher (neutral - voter)
- 08:00 GMT/03:00 ET - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter)
- 08:30 GMT/03:30 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter)
- 11:30 GMT/06:30 ET - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter)
- 12:30 GMT/07:30 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter)
- 12:40 GMT/07:40 ET - SNB Chairman Schlegel (neutral - voter)
- 13:00 GMT/08:00 ET - ECB's Nagel (neutral - voter)
- 13:45 GMT/08:45 ET - Fed's Jefferson (neutral - voter)
- 14:00 GMT/09:00 ET - Fed's Logan (hawkish - voter in 2026)
- 14:30 GMT/09:30 ET - ECB's Kocher (neutral - voter)
- 14:30 GMT/09:30 ET - ECB's Muller (neutral - voter)
- 15:40 GMT/10:40 ET - BoE's Pill (hawkish - voter)
