In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a few low-tier releases like the final French and Spanish inflation reports and the second estimate of the Eurozone Q3 GDP. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction is likely to be fairly muted.
In the American session, we don't have anything other than a couple of hawkish Fed speakers. The market pricing is now showing a 50/50 chance of a cut in December, so the data will have the final say. I don't think the September NFP expected to be released next week is going to matter much if it's soft given that it's old data, but a strong report might be taken as meaningful because the market could think that conditions were already getting better in September before the two rate cuts.
So, I think the November NFP is going to have the final say, which will hopefully get released just before the FOMC meeting in December (we won't get the November CPI in time).
Central bank speakers:
- 10:30 GMT/05:30 ET - ECB's Elderson (neutral - voter)
- 14:20 GMT/09:20 ET - Fed's Bostic (hawkish - non voter)
- 15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)
- 15:05 GMT/10:05 ET - Fed's Schmid (hawkish - voter)
- 19:30 GMT/14:30 ET - Fed's Logan (hawkish - voter in 2026)
- 20:20 GMT/15:20 ET - Fed's Bostic (hawkish - non voter)
