In the European session, the main highlight was the UK employment report. The data was once again soft with a higher unemployment rate and lower than expected employment change. The average weekly earnings increased though as wage growth remains stuck at elevated levels.
Looking ahead, we just have the German ZEW and the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. The German data is not going to change anything for the ECB and it's unlikely to be a market-mover unless we get huge deviations. The NFIB is never a market-moving release and it definitely won't influence the Fed's stance at all.
In the American session, the main highlight is Fed Chair Powell's speech at 16:20 GMT/12:20 ET but given that we haven't got anything new since his last appearance, he's unlikely to change his stance. If the shutdown continues, the Fed will only get to see the US CPI on October 24 before its meeting on October 28-29.
Lastly, the focus will remain on US-China headlines this week as the markets await more de-escalation but are also on the lookout for escalatory actions.
Central bank speakers:
- 07:50 GMT/03:50 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)
- 09:40 GMT/07:40 ET - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter)
- 10:00 GMT/08:00 ET - BoE's Breeden (neutral - voter)
- 12:00 GMT/10:00 ET - BoE's Taylor (dovish - voter)
- 12:45 GMT/10:45 ET - Fed's Bowman (dovish - voter)
- 16:15 GMT/12:15 ET - ECB's Villeroy (dovish - voter)
- 16:20 GMT/12:20 ET - Fed Chair Powell (neutral - voter)
- 17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - BoE Governor Bailey (dovish - voter)
- 19:25 GMT/17:25 ET - Fed's Waller (dovish - voter)
- 19:30 GMT/17:30 ET - Fed's Collins (neutral - voter)
