In the European session, the main highlight will be the Flash Eurozone CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.2% vs 2.0% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.3% vs 2.3% prior. As a reminder, the ECB ended its easing cycle and it's now just monitoring how the economy and inflation evolve going forward. The majority of ECB members have already said that they won't react to short-term or small deviations from the 2% target. We will also get the final PMI data for many Eurozone economies and the UK but it's unlikely to be market-moving.
In the American session, we have the US ADP and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The US government has officially shut down a couple of hours ago and if the shutdown lasts beyond Friday, we won't get the US Jobless Claims tomorrow nor the NFP report on Friday. Government data will likely be held off until funding is restored. The private data will still be released though, so the ADP might become even more important now. The ADP is expected to show 50K jobs added in September vs 54K in August.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.0 vs 48.7 prior. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI ticked a bit lower in September and the commentary was mostly negative. The key lines were "September saw companies pull back on their hiring" and "softening demand conditions are also becoming more widely reported, curbing pricing power". We will see if the ISM shows the same.
Central bank speakers:
- 07:30 GMT/03:30 ET - ECB's Elderson (neutral - voter)
- 07:55 GMT/03:55 ET - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter)
- 08:00 GMT/04:00 ET - ECB's Rehn (neutral - voter)
- 16:15 GMT/12:15 ET - Fed's Barkin (neutral - non voter)
- 18:05 GMT/14:05 ET - BoC's Rogers (voter)
