In the European session, we get the inflation data from the largest Eurozone economies. We will start with the French CPI, then get the regional German inflation readings, the Italian CPI and then conclude with the German CPI. Given the ECB's current stance, the data shouldn't change much for the central bank at the moment as they will just keep monitoring the data until 2026.
In the American session, the focus will turn to the US Consumer Confidence and Job Openings reports. The consumer confidence is expected at 96.0 vs 97.4 prior. This is unlikely to be a market-mover unless we get big deviations. The US job openings are expected at 7.185M vs 7.181M prior. This is the first major labour market report we get but unfortunately it's two-month old data. Nevertheless, it's still a market-moving report, especially now given the Fed's focus on the labour market.
Lastly, the market is also focused on the looming US goverment shutdown starting at 00:01 ET on Wednesday (04:01 GMT) if no resolution is reached before that deadline. The impact on markets has been historically negligible but in the short-term it's hard to envision what's going to happen (although markets generally don't like uncertainty). The problem is that many key economic data releases will be delayed, including the Non-Farm Payrolls report. In such a scenario, we will just get the private-sector data like the ADP and the ISM PMIs. Never a dull moment with Trump's administration...
Central bank speakers:
- 10:00 GMT/06:00 ET - Fed's Jefferson (neutral - voter)
- 11:00 GMT/07:00 ET - ECB's Cipollone (dovish - voter)
- 11:50 GMT/07:50 ET - BoE's Lombardelli (neutral - voter)
- 12:00 GMT/08:00 ET - BoE's Ramsden (dovish - voter)
- 12:50 GMT/08:50 ET - ECB's President Lagarde (neutral - voter)
- 13:00 GMT/09:00 ET - ECB's Elderson (neutral - voter)
- 13:25 GMT/09:25 ET - BoE's Mann (neutral - voter)
- 15:00 GMT/11:00 ET - BoE's Breeden (neutral - voter)
- 17:30 GMT/15:30 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (neutral - voter)
