In the European session, we just have the second estimate of the Eurozone Q2 GDP. This is of course very old data and the market won't care about it. The ECB has now finished with its easing cycle and it will take significant negative reasons to get another rate cut. Right now, a rate hike in 2026 looks more likely (all else being equal).
In the American session, we have the US PPI and US Jobless Claims data. The US Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 2.9% vs 2.6% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs 0.0% prior. The market will focus on the components that feed into the PCE calculation. After the CPI, the Core PCE is expected to come in hotter than in June with a 0.3% M/M increase and 3.0% Y/Y.
The US Initial Claims are expected at 228K vs 226K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1964K vs 1974K prior. Claims are the most timely labour market data we have and they've been confirming a "low firing, low hiring" state. Ahead of the September NFP, the market will focus on all of the labour market data like the jobless claims, ADP and employment indices in the ISM reports.
