In the European session, we will get the Final services PMIs and the Eurozone PPI which shouldn't change much in terms of interest rate expectations. In the American session, the focus will switch to the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI data but keep an eye on potential headlines on a Trump-Xi call as it was postponed yesterday.
13:15 GMT/08:15 ET - US January ADP
The US ADP is expected at 150K vs. 122K prior. This is not a reliable indicator for NFP, but it’s been pointing to a normalising but stable job creation. It shouldn’t be as market moving as it was in second half of last year as the market has already repriced interest rate expectations and it’s now just about further easing in inflation.
15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US January ISM Services PMI
The US ISM Services PMI is expected at 54.3 vs. 54.1 prior. The US S&P Global Services PMI missed expectations by a big margin but as the agency noted "although output growth slowed slightly in January, sustained confidence suggests that this slowdown might be short-lived.
Especially encouraging is the upturn in hiring that has been fuelled by the improved business outlook, with jobs being created at a rate not seen for two-and-a-half years.” Anyway, the Manufacturing PMI is a better indicator for the turns in the business cycle.
Central bank speakers:
- 14:00 GMT/09:00 ET - ECB's Lane (voter - dove)
- 14:00 GMT/09:00 ET - Fed's Barkin (non voter - neutral)
- 18:00 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (voter - dove)
- 20:00 GMT/15:00 ET - Fed's Bowman (voter - hawk)
