Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 59 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- ECB: 13 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- BoE: 18 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- BoC: 20 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- RBA: 63 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- RBNZ: 41 bps (88% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB: 12 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 13 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
We haven't seen much change this week since the quick repricing triggered by the soft NFP report. The most notable repricing happened with the BoE as it delivered a hawkish rate cut yesterday. The market is now seeing basically a 50/50 chance of another cut by year-end. Of course everything hinges on the data going forward.
Speaking of the data, the focus has now turned to the US CPI report coming up on Tuesday. That's going to be the next major event before the Jackson Hole Symposium scheduled for August 21-23.
