Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 83 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- ECB: 80 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- BoE: 78 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- BoC: 44 bps (60% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- RBA: 120 bps (73% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- RBNZ: 77 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB: 24 bps (78% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
* for the RBA, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 15 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting
As you can see, the expectations haven't changed much since yesterday's update. The markets are currently consolidating awaiting new information on the tariffs front.
