What are the interest rates expectations after this week's events and data?

  • Expectations consolidated for most central banks. The economic data will determine the next direction for the repricing.
  • Fed: 56 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 52 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 47 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 47 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 77 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 60 bps (76% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 44 bps (83% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

*for the SNB, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 16 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

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