Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 44 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 83 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 83 bps (99% probability of rate cut at today's decision)
• BoC: 61 bps (65% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 87 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 126 bps (86% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 35 bps (79% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 34 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)