Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 42 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 85 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 80 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 57 bps (72% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 85 bps (83% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 115 bps (71% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 40 bps (84% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 30 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)