Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 48 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 93 bps (94% probability of rate cut at today's decision)
• BoE: 71 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 40 bps (64% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 86 bps (74% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 105 bps (73% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 34 bps (76% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 27 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)