Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 40 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 96 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 67 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 55 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 71 bps (58% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 100 bps (66% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 37 bps (84% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 50 bps (95% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)