- There are good developments about Iran
- They have agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz
- US and allies have agreed to stop attacking Iran
- That's the basis of the "fragile truce" currently
- Some people within Iran have responded very favourably to the truce
- US negotiating team to work in good faith to get to an agreement with Iran
- If Iran doesn't engage in good faith, "they will find out that Trump is not one to mess around"
No surprises there as he sticks with a similar tone as US president Trump, in trying to sell a very positive story and that they have been "victorious". However, I would like to emphasise again that actions speak louder than words.
For now, the murmurs are that Iran isn't exactly going to proceed with a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As mentioned before, it is likely going to be a slow trickle in passage flow rather than a flood of vessels moving through the strait.
That as we are still in a phase where both sides are needing to talk things out and having to hold their cards close to their chest. The first round of negotiations will take place later this week on 10 April in Islamabad.
So, the US can claim whatever they want about the strait being open and what not. But at the end of the day, ship tracking data doesn't lie and that will be the one telling the truth about the story come what may.
As mentioned earlier today, markets may be feeling more optimistic at the moment but it is a sense of relief in buying more time for more hopeful developments. This latest ceasefire isn't going to cut it unless activity in the Strait of Hormuz really picks up more meaningfully, allowing for Gulf nations to also ramp back up production facilities.
