US retail sales report due Wednesday, here are two analysts looking for a topside blow out

The data is due at 1330 GMT, which is 8.30am US Eastern time.

Note the consensus expected for Retail Sales Control Group is 0.3% and for Retail Sales headline is +1.8%. Bank of America is a huge retail bank in the US and they have much higher expectations, a whopping +2.6% and +3.0% respectively. BoA are basing their outlying estimates on their in-house proprietary credit card spending data during January.

Scotiabank is also above consensus, looking for a headline +2.2%:

  • the US consumer’s fundamentals remain sound. Job markets are very tight, wage gains are decent, the debt-to-income ratio is at a twenty-two year low, debt payments as a share of incomes are toward record lows, cash balances are very high after socking away pandemic stimulus and Americans have a one-way option to refi in a falling rate environment that locked in pandemic lows for 30-year mortgages.
retail sales 15 February 2023

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

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