US retail sales for September 0.2% versus 0.4% estimate

  • US retail sales for September 2025
China Japan retail sales
  • Prior month (August) 0.6%
  • Retail sales for September 0.2% vs 0.4% estimate.
  • Retail sales ex auto 0.3% vs 0.3% estimate. Prior month 0.7% revised lower to 0.6%.
  • Retail sales ex gas/auto 0.1% vs 0.7% last month revised lower to 0.6%
  • Retail Control Group -0.1% versus 0.3% estimate. Prior month 0.7% revised lower to 0.6%. The weakest number since August 2024. The control group feeds into GDP.
  • Retail Sale YoY 3.9% vs 5.0% last month.

Details from different components shows

  • Retail & Food Services

    • Total: 0.2

    • Total (excl. motor vehicles & parts): 0.3

    • Total (excl. gasoline stations): 0.0

    • Total (excl. motor vehicles, parts & gasoline): 0.1

    • Retail: 0.1

    Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers

    • Total: –0.3

    • Auto & other motor vehicle dealers: –0.2

    Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores

    • 0.6

    Electronics & Appliance Stores

    • –0.5

    Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers

    • 0.2

    Food & Beverage Stores

    • Total: 0.2

    • Grocery stores: 0.3

    Health & Personal Care Stores

    • 1.1

    Gasoline Stations

    • 2.0

    Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores

    • –0.7

    Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument & Book Stores

    • –2.5

    General Merchandise Stores

    • Total: 0.1

    • Department stores: –0.7

    Miscellaneous Store Retailers

    • 2.9

    Nonstore Retailers

    • –0.7

    Food Services & Drinking Places

    • 0.7

It is old data, but US yields are down modestly with the 10 year at 4.017%, -1.9 basis points.

The US dollar moved lower on the data, but is giving back some of the gains. For the EURUSD, the price moved toward the 200 hour MA at 1.15670, but fell short of that level (high reached 1.1561).

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