Happy Friday.
The US week ends with a bang in the form of the March retail sales report. The consensus is for a 0.4% decline on the headline but the focus is on the control group, which excludes autos, gasoline and building materials, which are volatile. That's forecast to fall 0.3% after a +0.5% reading in February.
If the numbers do falter, the recession-istas will be barking but it won't necessarily hurt the dollar, particularly not against the commodity currencies. The purest trade on it would be short USD/JPY (or long if it's strong).
