US Q2 GDP (second look) +2.1% vs +2.4% expected

  • The second reading on Q2 growth
US GDP
  • The advance Q1 reading was +2.4%
  • Final Q1 reading was +2.0% annualized
  • Q4 was +2.6% annualized

Details:

  • Consumer spending +1.7% vs +1.6% advance
  • Consumer spending on durables -0.3% vs +16.3% prior
  • GDP final sales +2.2% vs +2.3% advance
  • GDP deflator +2.0% vs +2.2% advance
  • Core PCE +3.7% vs +3.8% advance
  • Exports -10.6 vs -10.8% advance
  • Imports -7.0% vs -7.8% advance
  • Business investment +3.9% vs +4.9% advance
  • Corporate profits -10.6% vs -5.9% advance

No changes on any of the metrics were expected.

Percentage point changes:

  • Net trade -0.12 pp vs -0.12 pp advance
  • Inventories -0.09 pp vs +0.14 pp advance
  • Govt +0.58 pp vs +0.06 pp advance

State and local government spending has been a strong tailwind over the past year, adding about 0.5 pp per quarter. That should come to an end soon

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