- Prior was +0.5%
- Wholesale trade sales -0.4% vs -0.2% exp
It's not clear whether we will get the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker but there should be a big rise in the Q4 data due to strong trade numbers earlier. This reading will be a small drag but it was mostly priced in.
The US wholesale inventories report is a monthly economic indicator published by the US Census Bureau that measures the dollar value of goods held by merchant wholesalers at the end of each month. These firms operate between manufacturers and retailers, selling goods to businesses, institutions, and other wholesalers. The data are drawn from the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey and include inventory levels, monthly sales, and the inventories-to-sales ratio.
Wholesale inventories are closely watched because they provide insight into supply-chain conditions and demand expectations. Rising inventories can reflect confidence in future sales and intentional stock-building, but they can also signal slowing demand if goods are accumulating unsold. Falling inventories may indicate strong sales, cautious ordering, or deliberate destocking. As a result, the report is often interpreted alongside retail sales and manufacturing data to gauge broader economic momentum.
The report plays a direct role in GDP through the change in private inventories component. GDP measures production, not final sales, so goods that are produced but placed into inventory add to GDP in the period they are made. Conversely, inventory drawdowns subtract from GDP even if end demand is strong. Wholesale inventories therefore can meaningfully boost or drag quarterly GDP growth, sometimes obscuring the underlying demand trend.
Markets also focus on the inventories-to-sales ratio, which helps assess whether inventory levels are sustainable or likely to lead to future production adjustments.
