US October PCE core inflation +5.0% vs +5.0% expected

  • Highlights of the Fed's personal consumption expenditure report for October 2022
US core PCE yy
  • Prior was +5.1% (revised to 5.2%)
  • PCE core MoM +0.2% vs +0.3% expected
  • Prior MoM +0.5%
  • Headline PCE +6.0% vs +6.2% expected (prior +6.2%)
  • Deflator MoM +0.3% vs +0.5% expected (prior +0.3%)
  • Full report

Consumer spending and income for October:

  • Personal income +0.7% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.4%
  • Personal spending +0.8% vs +1.0% expected. Prior month +0.6%
  • Real personal spending +0.5% vs +0.3% prior

Expectations adjusted lower after CPI and this report shows that wasn't a fluke. The 0.2% m/m rise is right on 'par' with 2-3% inflation going forward and that's a positive development, though it's just one month and comes after +0.5% in September.

The report notes "widespread decreases in prices for durable goods" while noting that the prices for services increased 0.4% m/m led by food services, accommodations and housing. You can see the rollover in goods here while restaurants and hotels surve.

US prices by category

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