- Prior was 0.0% (revised to -0.1%)
Details:
- Ex-autos +0.5% vs +0.4% expected
- Prior ex autos +0.4% (revised to +0.2%)
- Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs +0.5% prior (revised to +0.4%)
- Control group +0.4% vs +0.4% expected
- Prior control +0.8% (revised to +0.6%)
- Retail sales y/y % vs +3.47% prior
This is generally in-line on the headline but the overall report is a tad soft because of the revisions.
Food services and drinking places +0.6% (prior: -0.1%) — spending on experiences reaccelerated after a soft October, a good read on discretionary demand
Clothing and clothing accessories +0.9% (prior: +1.2%) — still strong even after a big October gain, consistent with tariff front-running or early holiday demand
Motor vehicle and parts dealers +1.0% (prior: -1.6%) — sharp reversal following October weakness, likely helped by incentives and pull-forward demand
Building materials and garden supplies +1.3% (prior: -1.3%) — bounce after a weak prior month, hinting at tentative stabilization in housing-related activity
Furniture and home furnishings -0.1% (prior: +1.8%) — gave back part of October’s strength, underscoring how rate-sensitive this category remains
Grocery stores +0.1% (prior: +0.2%) — little change month to month, suggesting volumes remain under pressure
Nonstore retailers +0.4% (prior: +1.0%) — growth cooled from October but the underlying trend remains solid
The year-over-year changes show which parts of the economy are doing ok, and which ones are struggling. These aren't inflation-adjusted so ratchet them down by about 2.7 pp.
Food services and drinking places: +4.9% y/y
Clothing and clothing accessories stores: +7.5% y/y
Motor vehicle and parts dealers: −0.7% y/y
Building material and garden equipment & supplies dealers: −2.8% y/y
Furniture and home furnishings stores: −1.4% y/y
Grocery stores: +2.9% y/y
Nonstore retailers: +7.2% y/y
Control group (ex-autos, gas, building materials, food services): +4.4% y/y
For back ground: the US retail sales report is one of the market’s cleanest reads on the health of the American consumer, and by extension the broader economy. Released monthly by the Census Bureau, it tracks the dollar value of sales across a wide range of retailers, from autos and gas stations to restaurants and online stores (shown as non-store retailers). Because consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of US GDP, the report carries real weight for growth expectations and interest-rate pricing.
Markets tend to focus on the “control group,” which strips out autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services. That subset feeds directly into GDP calculations and often matters more than the headline. Strong retail sales suggest resilient demand, firmer pricing power, and less urgency for rate cuts. Weak numbers raise questions about consumer fatigue, credit stress, and the durability of the expansion.
It’s a noisy report, prone to revisions and seasonal quirks.
