- Prior was 4.09m
- Sales -3.6% vs +2.7% prior
- Median price $408,800, up 1.4% y/y
- Inventory 4.1 months
The National Association of Realtors' existing home sales series measures the annualized transaction volume of previously owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, based on closing data from multiple listing services. Because closings typically lag contract signings by 30 to 60 days, the data reflect buying decisions made one to two months earlier, making it a useful but somewhat lagging gauge of housing demand.
The U.S. resale market spent much of 2025 constrained by elevated mortgage rates and the persistent "lock-in effect," as homeowners with sub-4% pandemic-era mortgages remained reluctant to list. Conditions improved modestly in the second half, culminating in a 5.1% surge in December to an annualized pace of 4.35 million units — the highest level in nearly three years. January 2026 sharply reversed that momentum, with sales initially reported down 8.4% to 3.91 million units, though the figure was later revised up to a 5.9% decline and a 4.02 million pace. NAR attributed some of the weakness to severe winter weather across much of the country.
February brought an unexpected rebound. Sales rose 1.7% to a 4.09 million annualized rate, well above consensus expectations of 3.89 million. Three of four Census regions posted gains, led by an 8.2% jump in the West, while the Northeast fell 6.0%. The median sale price edged up 0.3% year-over-year to $398,000, marking the 32nd consecutive month of annual price increases, though the pace of appreciation has moderated. Inventory rose 2.4% to 1.29 million units — 3.8 months of supply — still well below pre-pandemic norms. NAR's Housing Affordability Index climbed to 117.6, its highest since March 2022, supported by lower mortgage rates and wage gains outpacing home prices. Still, first-time buyers accounted for just 34% of transactions, well short of the 40% share considered indicative of a healthy market. The near-term outlook hinges on whether improving affordability can offset persistent supply constraints and renewed uncertainty around inflation and long-term Treasury yields.
