US March ADP employment +62K vs +40K expected

  • The March 2026 employment survey from ADP
ADP
  • Prior was +63K (revised to +66K)

Details:

  • Goods +30K versus +16K last month
  • Service +32K versus +47K last month
  • Small business +85K vs +60K prior
  • Medium businesses -20K vs -7K last month
  • Large businesses -4K vs +10K last month

This is back-to-back decent readings after a long sting of poor numbers. Adding 62,000 jobs isn't exactly setting the world on fire but it takes the pressure of the employment side of the Fed's mandate and nudges them closer to holding rates or hiking them.

It's also nice to see growth in small businesses.

The negative bent to the report is that 58,000 of the 62,000 jobs were in education/health services. Construction also added 30K jobs while trade/transport/utilities lost 58K jobs and manufacturing fell 11K.

  • Wages for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.5% last month
  • Wages for job changers 6.6% vs 6.3% last month

For background, the ADP National Employment Report is a widely followed monthly gauge of U.S. private-sector hiring, produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It draws on aggregated and anonymized payroll data from over 26 million employees, making it one of the largest non-government labor market datasets available. Released on the first Wednesday of each month—typically two days ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' nonfarm payrolls report—it serves as an early read on employment trends for investors, policymakers, and businesses.

“Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP after today's report. “In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers.”

Private-sector job creation slowed markedly heading into 2026. For all of 2025, private employers added just 398,000 jobs, down sharply from 771,000 in 2024, extending a three-year deceleration in hiring. December 2025 saw a modest rebound of 41,000 jobs after a revised loss of 29,000 in November, but the recovery was uneven across sectors.

January 2026 disappointed, with private payrolls rising by only about 22,000, well below the 48,000 consensus forecast. Healthcare was a bright spot, adding 74,000 positions, while professional and business services shed 57,000 jobs and manufacturing continued a losing streak dating back to March 2024.

February brought a welcome pickup. Private employers added 63,000 jobs, the strongest monthly gain since July 2025 and above the 50,000 forecast. Education and health services led the way with 58,000 new positions, followed by construction at 19,000, while professional and business services lost another 30,000. Annual pay growth for job-stayers held at 4.5%, but the wage premium for switching employers fell to a record low, signaling that hiring strength remained concentrated in a handful of industries rather than broadening across the economy.

ADP employment
ADP employment

Best in 2026

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