ADP employment
- Prior was +37K
- Goods producing +32K vs -2K prior
- Service providing -66K vs +36K prior
Wage measures:
- Pay gains for job stayers +4.4% vs 4.5% prior
- Pay growth for job changers +6.8% vs 7.0% prior
This is the worst reading since March 2023 when it was -102K.
- Professional/business services -56K
- Education/health -52K
- Financial activities -14K
- Manufacturing +15K
- Leisure/hospitality +32K
This is a tough one ahead of non-farm payrolls tomorrow. There is also talk that the Homebase data is pointing to a soft one. The market is now fully priced for September with a 22% chance of a 50 bps cut.
