- Prior was 119.38 (revised to 118.70)
- Six of eight components decreased, led by jobless claims
This is a composite release so it doesn't tell us anything we don't know. Unlike non-farm payrolls, it shows some weakening in US employment but it's from an extremely strong base.
From the release:
“The Employment Trends Index declined in July and has now been on a downward trend since March 2022,” said Frank Steemers, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “While the US labor market is currently still robust, the recent behavior of the Index signals that slower job gains should be expected over the next several months. This would bring the labor market in line with the rest of the economy, where economic activity has already been slowing.”
Steemers added: “It is increasingly likely that the US economy will fall into recession by yearend or early 2023, with the Fed expected to continue raising interest rates rapidly over the coming months. While businesses are currently still struggling with severe labor shortages, they may soon see some reduced pressure in recruitment and retention difficulties as economic activity cools. Depending on the severity of the recession, some months of negative jobs growth are possible over the year ahead. However, The Conference Board expects the unemployment rate—just 3.5 percent as of July 2022—to remain below 4.5 percent in 2023.”
