US January Philly Fed +12.6 vs -1.0 expected

  • The Philly Fed for January 2026
Philly fed

Details:

  • Employment: +9.7 vs +12.9 last month

  • Prices paid: +46.9 vs +43.6 last month

  • New orders: +14.4 vs +5.0 last month

  • Shipments: vs +3.2 last month

  • Unfilled orders: vs -6.2 last month

  • Inventories: vs +6.5 last month

  • Average workweek: vs +14.7 last month

Six-months from now indicators:

  • 6 month index: vs +41.6 last month

  • Capex index 6-month forward: vs +30.3 last month

Philly Fed

The Philly Fed is a solid look at manufacturing in the region but the entire US manufacturing sector is increasingly irrelevant in terms of national employment, GDP and markets. It represents something of a broader look at overall economic sentiment, so it still has some value but it's rarely an FX market mover or anything else.

Separately, the import/export price indexes were released for November:

  • Import prices +0.4% vs -0.1% expected (prior 0.0%)
  • Import prices y/y vs +0.3% prior
  • Export prices +0.5% vs +0.2% expected (prior was 0.0%)

There is some inflation hidden in these numbers and all of this is coming with oil prices at very low levels.

Best in 2026

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