- Prior 130K revise to 126K
- nonfarm payroll -92K vs +50 9K estimate
- December was 48K. November was 41K
- Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Prior month 4.3%.
- Average hourly earnings 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.4%
- average hourly earnings YoY 3.8% versus 3.7% expected. Prior month 3.7%.
- Participation rate 62.0% versus 62.1% (revise from 62.5%)
- U6 unemployment rate 7.9% versus 8.1% (revised from 8.0%)
Looking at the details by different sector:
February employment change by sector (strongest → weakest)
Financial activities: +10K (Jan -30K)
Other services: +8K (Jan +8K)
Wholesale trade: +6K (Jan +3K)
Retail trade: +2K (Jan +11K)
Utilities: +1K (Jan 0K)
Mining & logging: -2K (Jan -2K)
Professional & business services: -5K (Jan +18K)
Transportation & warehousing: -11K (Jan -12K)
Construction: -11K (Jan +48K)
Information: -11K (Jan -19K)
Manufacturing: -12K (Jan +5K)
Leisure & hospitality: -27K (Jan -12K)
Private education & health services: -34K (Jan +129K)
Sector totals
Goods-producing: -25K (Jan +51K)
Private service-providing: -61K (Jan +95K)
Key takeaway:
The biggest positive contributor in February was financial activities, while the largest declines came from private education & health services and leisure & hospitality, which swung sharply lower from strong gains in January.
There is some weather issues. There was some strike effects of around -30K (which will come back). Perhaps seasonals are tough especially with an aging population. Immigration has virtually stopped. AI may be starting to show its ugly face, but overall the number is much weaker than expectations.
The market has sent the yields lower with the 10 year down -2.0 basis points to 4.125%. The yield was up about 2.5% in premarket trading.
US stocks have moved to the downside with the S&P down -74 points the Dow Industrial Average is down -525 points in the NASDAQ index is down -334 points.
The USD has moved lower but is rebounding.
