US January ADP employment +183K vs +150K expected

  • US jobs data
ADP employment
  • Prior was +122K (revised to +176K)
  • Goods producing -6K
  • Service providing +190K
  • Pay gains for job stayers 4.7% vs 4.6% prior
  • Pay growth for job changers 6.8% vs 7.1% prior

“We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production.”

More than half of the jobs gains were in 'trade/transportation/utilities' and in 'leisure/hospitality'.

Overall, this adds an upwards bias to non-farm payrolls but this report's correlation with NFP is tenuous at best.

ADP employment Jan 2025
ADP employment

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