- Prior was 219K (revised to 218K)
- 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 209.75K versus 209.5K last week
- Continuing claims 1818K vs 1810K expected
- Prior week 1794K (revised to 1787K)
This is a good reading and while the Iran war was going on there have been a series of upbeat readings on the economy. As this report was released, the Philly Fed also handily beat expectations. Were it not for this war and tariffs, we would be talking about a very strong US economy and an AI-led boom.
The US dollar ticked slightly higher on this but trading is generally subdued today with EUR/USD down 17 pips on the day to 1.1781. S&P 500 futures are up 10 points.
Initial claims drop back to 207K after last week's pop to 218K, reinforcing the view that the labour market remains tight without showing signs of meaningful deterioration. The 4-week average barely budged, which is the number to watch through seasonal noise around Easter and spring break timing. The unadjusted data actually rose 6.0% week-over-week, but seasonal factors had penciled in an 11.8% jump, so the adjusted print benefits from that offset.
Continuing claims tick up 31K to 1.818M, but the four-week average fell to its lowest level in nearly two years — a quiet signal that those losing jobs are still finding their way back into work reasonably quickly. Year-over-year, continuing claims are running below the comparable 2025 week (1.943M).
On the state level, New Jersey (+5,603), Pennsylvania (+2,513) and Oregon (+2,182) drove the largest unadjusted increases in the prior week's data, with Pennsylvania citing layoffs across transportation/warehousing, hospitality and healthcare. Oregon pointed to the education sector. Offsetting declines came from New York (-1,592) and Texas (-1,299).
