US final Q4 GDP +0.5% vs +0.7% expected

  • The final look at US fourth quarter GDP
US GDP
  • Second reading was +0.7%
  • The final Q3 reading was +4.4%
  • Consumer spending final +1.9% vs +3.5% prior
  • Q4 corporate profits after tax +5.7% vs +4.7% prior
  • GDP final sales +0.3% vs +4.5% prior

Inflation metrics:

  • GDP deflator 3.7% vs 3.8% expected
  • Core PCE final 2.7% vs 2.7% expected
  • PCE prices final 2.9% vs 2.8% prior

Real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to investment. This is now ancient history though as we are entering Q2, so this is going to be largely ignored as attention remains on US-Iran negotiations.

US GDP

The contributors to the increase in Real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

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