- Prior was -0.2% (revised to -0.1%)
Details:
- Ex-autos +0.5% vs 0.3% expected
- Prior ex autos 0.0%
- Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs 0.3% prior (revised to +0.2%)
- Control group +0.5% vs +0.3% expected
- Prior control +0.3% (revised to +0.2%)
- Retail sales y/y +3.7% vs +3.2% prior
It's worth noting that the official Census Bureau advance estimate for February 2026 was originally scheduled for March 16 but has been delayed to April 1, 2026—so the government figures may be releasing today. The data below draws on the January Census report and the NRF's February reading based on alternative transaction data.
In terms of sectors, we got strong hiring in health care today and also strong spending on health care. Clothing spending was also high and that all starts to look like the The Ozempic Economy™
For background, retail sales are published monthly by the Census Bureau as part of its Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, covering sales at stores, restaurants, and online retailers. The report is one of the most closely watched indicators of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Because it is released about two weeks after the reference month, it offers a timely snapshot of household demand.
The closing months of 2025 were uneven. November saw a solid 0.6% month-over-month gain—the strongest since July—boosted by a rebound in auto sales and strong holiday shopping. December unexpectedly stalled, with gains in building materials and sporting goods offset by declines in furniture, clothing, and electronics.
January 2026 was initially reported as a 0.2% decline but was revised today to a smaller 0.1% dip, bringing the seasonally adjusted level to $734.0 billion. The control group—which strips out autos, gas, building materials, and food services and feeds directly into GDP calculations—managed a 0.3% increase that month, and year-over-year sales were up 3.2%.
Today's advance estimate for February showed a solid rebound, with retail and food services sales rising 0.6% to $738.4 billion, up 3.7% from a year earlier. Retail trade alone also gained 0.6% on the month. Nonstore retailers posted a 7.5% year-over-year increase, and food services and drinking places were up 5.2% from February 2025. By category, health and personal care stores surged 2.3% month over month, clothing rose 2.0%, and sporting goods gained 1.3%. On the weaker side, food and beverage stores and furniture each fell 1.0%. The three-month period from December through February was up 3.1% from the same window a year ago. The next release, covering March, is scheduled for April 21.
